GOP voters, too, helped tip election to Mallory

It was African-American Democrats in Bond Hill and Roselawn who put Mark Mallory over the top, and white Democrats in places like Oakley and Pleasant Ridge who narrowed the gap.

But here's another overlooked factor in last week's election for Cincinnati mayor: Mallory weakened Pepper's base among Republicans.

Four years ago, Charlie Luken won 86.7 percent of the vote in the 91 precincts that went for George W. Bush in the 2004 election. That's a level of voter loyalty unheard of outside the African-American community, noted Republican lawyer W. Stuart Dornette, who's been analyzing precinct-by-precinct results in city elections for 30 years.

Councilman David Pepper also won those Bush precincts, but by a narrower margin: 76.6 percent of the vote. The map below shows those GOP precincts outlined, with Pepper's deepest support in dark blue:

The raw vote numbers are even more telling. In 2001, Luken won those GOP precincts by a net 17,539 votes. Pepper got an advantage of only 10,402 votes. Those 7,539 votes could have decided the election -- if they still exist. Turnout was lower in those precincts, either because Republicans have moved out of the city or just aren't showing up to the polls.

Republican leaders say they deserve some of the credit for electing Mallory, who was endorsed by former Ohio Senate Presidents Stanley J. Aronoff and Richard Finan, and state Rep. Bill Seitz, R-Green Township. In the weekend before the election, Aronoff and Finan made automated phone calls to East Side Republicans, while Seitz "robo-called" West Side Republicans.

"I think their support was a clear signal to Republican voters that Mallory is fit to lead the city," said Brad Greenberg, executive director of the Hamilton County Republican Party.