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Wednesday, April 05, 2006

When in trouble, release a positive poll!

According to a new poll released today from Survey USA, it’s possible that these two complaints that have been filed with the Ohio Elections Commission over Rep. Jean Schmidt’s inaccurate endorsement and educational degree claims won’t matter.

The poll, which was done for WCPO-TV, shows that the Miami Township Republican holds a “massive” lead over Republican Bob McEwen, who is challenging Schmidt in the May 2 GOP primary election.

According to the poll, 55 percent of respondents say they plan to vote for Schmidt, 30 percent say they’ll vote for McEwen, 11 percent say they’ll vote for another candidate, and 4 percent are undecided.

“We are very excited by the WCPO Poll. Our polling is trending slightly better, but we are happy to have the public confirmation of the numbers,” Campaign Manager Allen Freeman said in a glowing statement about the poll.

McEwen spokesman Michael Harlow had a different response: “We would question the accuracy of any voice-automated polling, first of all,” he said. “I also would question the accuracy of any poll that shows four percent undecided voters. That’s unheard of, really.”

This poll was conducted by random telephone calls from March 31 to April 2 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

It survey included 1,500 adults, of which just 412 said they were Republicans who are likely to vote in the primary. (That’s a significant point. It means that two-thirds of the people who make up this poll aren’t going to vote in the election that the poll is purporting to measure!)

That didn’t stop Freeman from continuing to extol the beauties of this poll:

“Clearly Congresswoman Schmidt is now very well known and extremely popular. Her opponent only leads her among anti-war liberals. This is a very bad day for the McEwen camp,” Freeman said.

More Freeman: “Jean Schmidt will win this primary by a huge margin. We will win Anderson Township where our polling has us up by almost 50 percent. There is no where McEwen can hide.”


21 Comments:

at 11:28 PM, April 05, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

The poll results contained in Freeman's Folly tell you the real desperation of the Schmidt campaign.

First of all, if Channel 9 was trying to be so accurate about a primary vote, why not interview only Republicans?

Secondly, the poll was of 2nd district residents. Ok, who, where, and how did they know if it was a phone poll?

These and many more questions make it hard to take Freeman's Folly seriously.

 
at 12:07 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

So what should the candidate who's in real trouble (trailing by 25 points) do since he obviously can't release a positive poll?

Any advice for McEwen, Malia? Or should a reporter stick to the facts and keep his or her editorializing for the editorial pages?

 
at 12:12 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've received these WCPO phone calls before, and they're a complete joke. Not only are they demonstrably unscientific, the wording of most of them would make Stephen Colbert proud (i.e., "George W. Bush - great president or greatest president?"). WCPO and the Enquirer know who their viewers/readers are, and they're in the business of telling them what they want to hear. It's why the Post will be missed, and the Enquirer will never be a great large-market paper.

 
at 12:39 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

After Monday's sputtering performance in the parade, this just wrote itself.

"Lil Red-State Rep" about Jean Schmidt, to the tune of "Lil Red Corvette" by Prince.

I guess I shoulda known
By the way u called him a coward
That it wouldn’t last

See you’re the kinda person
That believes in makin’ up stuff
Lyin and Lyin fast

I guess we must be dumb
’cuz u had a webpage of endorsements
Chabot and Tancredo false

But it was saturday night
I guess I watched Channel 9
And u said have I got 2 degrees?
And honey I say

Little red-state rep
Baby you’ve got to go
Little red-state rep
We need a rep that’s gonna know

I guess I shoulda shut my ears
When u told me that you taught
When you never did so

’cuz we felt a little sad
When we heard all the lying
Of your degrees that weren't there ever

Believe it or not
we started to worry
We wondered if you had enough brains

But it was a Tuesday night
Sitting in the pale light
And U say, voters what lie would you believe?
Oh yeah

Little red-state rep
Baby you’ve got to go, yes u r
Little red-state rep
We need 2 find a rep that’s gonna show

A liar like you (a liar like you)
Oughta be in jail (oughta be in jail)
’cuz it’s on the verge of embarassing
(’cuz it’s on the verge of embarassing)

Move over Mean Jean (move over Mean Jean)
Give us the keys (give us the keys)
we're gonna try 2 tame your red-state lie machine
(we're gonna try 2 tame your red-state lie machine)

Little red-state rep
Baby you’ve got to go, yes u r
Little red-state rep
We need 2 find a rep that’s gonna show

(little red-state rep)
Right down 2 the ground (Mean Jean u got 2 slow down)
U, u, u got 2 slow down (little red-state rep)
You’re lyin much 2 fast (2 fast)
We need 2 find a rep that’s gonna last

Jean, u got a mouth like I never seen
And the words ..
I say the words are so foule
we must wash with Listerine

(little red-state rep)
Right down 2 the ground (Mean Jean u got 2 slow down)
U, u, u got 2 slow down (little red-state rep)
You’re lyin much 2 fast (2 fast)
We need 2 find a rep that’s gonna last

 
at 12:52 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Having a candidate waste so much time and money on signs and still only get 30%..now THATS unheard of

 
at 6:12 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

The first of about a thousand predictions that I have made during this campaign has come true. Now, here's another one. Not just ANY Democrat can win in November. We live in the 3rd most difficult district for a Democrat to win in the entire country.

Please, before you cast your vote, learn about each candidate's experience, ideas and positions on issues of importance to the people who live in Southern Ohio.

If you vote for the wrong candidate in the primary, you will personally be responsible for the re-election of Jean Schmidt. There is absolutely no excuse for that outcome. Not this time...

Thank you.

Jim Parker, MBA/MHA
Democratic Candidate for US Congress
SOuthern Ohio - 2nd District - 2006

Jim Parker for Congress - a Representative for ALL People who Live in Southern Ohio

 
at 7:11 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

"There is no where McEwen can hide."

McEwen won't be hiding on April 19th at the debate she agreed to and then backed out of. Where will she be hiding? More important, what is she hiding?

 
at 9:52 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

What an unfair headline!

The Schmidt campaign didn't release the poll, WCPO did. And how can you blame her campaign for talking about those kind of results.

 
at 11:18 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why has there been no stories about the illegal placement of McEwen signs all over the interstate connectors?? Jean has followed the law for years about asking permission from the property owner before placing a sign on their property. I beleive it is against the law to put signs just anywhere you want around the interstates.
Sure seems that someone is trying really hard to upset our duly elected state representative. I hope his/her intentions are truly as honorable as Mrs. Schmidt's.
I know her, I trust her, I support her.
She represents me and others who voted for her. She also represents democrats and her opponents that live in her district.
Don't put too much stock in all the headlines, desperate people go to desperate measures to further their cause.
Jean Schmidt will remain as our representative in the US Congress.

 
at 11:24 AM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

__

Mulon Rulon:

This is fantastic news. If the democrat (Downey) is up against full of "Schmidt" the Dems will certainly gain at least one house seat !

__

 
at 12:13 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

If McEwen doesn't buy it, why doesn't he do his own poll?

Face it, Bob. You're done.

 
at 12:44 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Surely this was not an unbiased headline to this blog. I can only hope that Malia herself did not write it, but some Bush hating staff writer.

 
at 12:46 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

They say Jean agrees too much with Bush. They say Bush's numbers are down.
I say--WE HAVE NOT BEEN ATTACKED AGAIN SINCE 9-11. Keep up the good work Jean & W .

 
at 12:52 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love the comment about Jean following the "rules for years." What about her appearance at the Reds Opening Day Parade. She was not on the list, did not pay the fee until the parade was over. McEwen missed the deadline to register, just like Schmidt, so he did not show up. Schmidt on the other hand crashed the parade, then stalled just like her campaign has stalled.

The rules also state that when you have been given every consideration and concession know to man, you show up at a debate and quit hiding from the voters.

Come on Jean, show up on April 19 in Anderson.

 
at 1:11 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was called & took the poll. They asked the right questions. They did not seem to be leading. They indentified themselves as channel 9 & said results would be on the news that night.

Bob please return to DC and let us Ohioan's govern ourselves!!
You have shown us where you would rather live by your absence these last so many years. How long have you been out of Ohio??
Where were your children raised? Where did they go to school?
Are you truly going to stand up for "the folks back home"?
It's obvious you like DC, please find another job up there and let us Ohio citizens pick one of our own to represent us!!!

 
at 3:41 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

The poll results are not particularly surprising. It is hard for a primary challenger to unseat an incumbent, especially when the challenger has relatively poor name recognition and a lack of an identifiable base. Congresswoman Schmidt has the recognition, and has the pro-life and pro-gun bases solidly behind her. Challenger McEwen's base seems to mainly consist of Chris Finney and Tom Brinkman's followers. McEwen doesn't seem to realize that you can't win by merely being against somebody else. His negative campaign, via surrogates Finney, Brinkman, and "Whistleblower" Jim Shifrin will be no more successful than the Democrats were against President Bush in 2004.

 
at 3:41 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

O.K., let's say people don't give a schmidt at the polls and vote to make her the Republican nominee again.

Isn't it time someone registered the domain name of republicansforwhoeverisrunningagainstschmidt.com

 
at 10:25 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm sort of glad that the Schmidtophites got this latest sense of hope from a poorly-conducted survey. Now they will really be driven to madness on May 3rd when their world will be turned upside down with the news that Jean will be lame duck in '06.

Ha ha!

 
at 10:25 PM, April 06, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

mccewen = H-U-C-K-S-T-E-R


brinkman = L-O-S-E-R

finney = B-I-G-G-E-R L-O-S-E-R


see you boys in clermont county....hint: the real center of the second district.

 
at 3:57 AM, April 07, 2006 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jean Schmidt will go down in a flaming defeat. McEwen is a crook, but everyone here in Ohio seems to be okay with that. Jean Schmidt is a crook, too, but an obnoxious female on top of that.

What her strategists really don't seem to get is that the so-called "pro-gun" and "pro-life" voting bloc is also "anti-woman" and "anti-loud mouthed-woman."

They'll vote for the teflon-hair guy.

Isn't it a wonderful choice we have between the two?

 
at 7:35 PM, April 07, 2006 Blogger Hyde Park Democrat said...

I agree with the early am blogger above that anti-gun and pro-life "forces" are hard-wired to favor a male candidate over a female one.

My own mother agrees that there are "just too many women up there in Congress,"......despite the tiny number of women compared to men in the US House and Senate. (She's not especially pro-life or pro-gun, just Pro Fox News, and in love with Neil Cavuto, etc.)

A male candidate possessing both size and heft, (and therefore looking good in a suit and tie)definitely has an advantage in most electoral contests.

In one of the blogs above, candidate Parker mentions Ohio's second Congressional District as the "3rd most difficult in the nation for a Democrat to win."

Its an interesting assessment. What's the source on that?

 
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