McEwen's turn to release a poll

Two days after Rep. Jean Schmidt's campaign touted a poll showing she has a 25-point lead over GOP primary rival Bob McEwen, a new poll commissioned by the McEwen campaign shows the two are just two points apart.

Say what?

That's right. The new poll, from Zogby International, shows that three weeks before the May 2 GOP primary, the race between McEwen and Schmidt is in what the McEwen camp calls "a statistical dead heat."

The poll of 400 likely Republican voters, conducted on April 5-6, shows Schmidt with 35 percent to McEwen's 33 percent. Also in the poll: 3 percent chose someone else and 29 percent were undecided. The poll had a margin of error ofplus or minus 5 percentage ponts.

The poll also showed McEwen with high favorables across the district, among both men and women. McEwen’s favorable/unfavorable rating was 46 percent to 13 percent among men, 43 percent to 12 percent among women, 42 percent to 12 percent in Hamilton County, 44 percent to 10 percent in Clermont County, and 41 percent to 19 percent in Warren County. The poll gave incumbent Schmidt a job approval rating of just 41 p0ercent.

The poll also indicated that 59 percent are less likely to vote for a candidate who has falsely claimed education credentials not earned and 63 percent are less likely to vote for a candidate who has falsely claimed endorsements from other officials. The poll showed McEwen in the lead in Adams, Brown, Hamilton, Scioto, and Warren Counties.

“This poll, conducted person-to-person, shows that the race is a statistical dead heat, with strong favorables for Bob McEwen and not-so-strong job approval ratings for the incumbent. This poll also shows that a majority of voters are particularly concerned about issues of character,” McEwen spokesman Michael Harlow said. “Furthermore, we have seen a strong shift in our favor in terms of endorsements, contributors, and volunteers.”

UPDATE:

Here's what Schmidt campaign spokesman Allen Freeman had to say about the poll:

"This is a classic reaction. Someone else comes up with a poll that has positive numbers and you go out and do your own poll. This is a typical strategy and this is what we expected," he said. "Our internal polling has been showing that we’re up by 20 points."

Freeman said based on that, he's comfortable saying that McEwen's new numbers are "no where near accurate."

"You can ask a question any way you want to get any answer you want," he said.

For clarity, here are some of the questions that were asked (in this order):

If the Republican primary election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were Jean Schmidt and Bob McEwen, for whom would you vote?

Thinking about incumbent Jean Schmidt's work as your representative in Congress, how would you rate the job she is doing?

Are you proud of Jean Schmidt as your congressional representative, or are you embarrassed because of her?

Would it make you (more likely, less likely, etc.) to vote for Jean Schmidt if you knew that she had wrongly stated that she had won political endorsements from individuals or groups when those people and groups had actually never endorsed her?

Would it make you (more likely, less likely, etc.) to vote for Jean Schmidt if you knew that she had wrongly stated that she had earned two college degrees when she had actually earned only one?

UPDATE:

Read all of the poll's questions here.

Read the story about this poll that ran in Saturday's Enquirer here.