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Monday, March 03, 2008

Ohio polls all over the map

With less than 24 hours to go before polls open in Ohio, polling of Ohio Democrats is all over the map, but the consensus is that Hillary Clinton will pull out a win over Barack Obama in the Buckeye State tomorrow.

UPDATE, 11:30 a.m. New Quinnipiac Poll out.

From Quinnipiac:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's margin over Sen. Barack Obama among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters has shrunk to 49 - 45 percent on the eve of the state's March 4 balloting, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 55 - 34 percent Sen. Clinton lead in a February 14 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University and a 51 - 40 percent lead February 25.

Sen. Obama has made gains in the last week especially among men and black voters.

The gender gap is a key factor in this latest survey, as women support Sen. Clinton 55 - 39 percent, while men back Sen. Obama by a mirror image 55 - 39 percent margin. Clinton's strength among lower income voters, 50 - 44 percent, and among older voters, 55 - 39 percent, also gives her an edge over Obama.

The Illinois Senator leads 58 - 37 percent among voters under 45. He also gets 90 percent of the black vote, while Clinton leads 60 - 34 percent among whites.

"The profiles of the Clinton voter and the Obama voter in Ohio are almost mirror images," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Men are for him; women for her. Those higher on the socio-economic scale are for him; those lower for her. Older people are for her; younger voters for him.
"The big unknown is turnout. It's not just whether it is higher than normal, which everyone expects it to be. The key question is whether turnout is disproportionately higher among some demographic groups than others."


Read more on that poll here


Monday morning, the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research released a new Ohio Poll showing Clinton with a lead of 51.3 percent to Obama’s 42.3 percent. Six percent said they would vote for John Edwards, whose name will be on the ballot.

The Ohio Poll also had John McCain leading Mike Huckabee among Ohio Republicans by 30 percentage points.

The Ohio Poll interviewed 624 likely Democratic voters and 330 likely Republican voters between Sunday and Thursday. The margin of error in the Democratic poll is plus or minus 3.9 percent and 5.4 percent in the Republican poll.

A poll completed Sunday by Suffolk University had Clinton ahead in Ohio by an even larger margin – it showed Clinton with 52 percent to 40 percent for Obama.

But a Reuters/Cspan/Zogby poll released Sunday night showed the race a virtual dead heat, with Obama taking 47 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent.


46 Comments:

at 10:03 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cincinnati isn't representative of the rest of the state, but it sure looks like Obama would get a majority around here. That is, of course, if all the rednecks, hillbillies, and klansmen (which, collectively, make up about 40% of SW Ohio's citizenship) don't remember he's black.

 
at 10:31 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, what a blatantly racist rant from the left. I'm neither a redneck, hillbilly, nor klansman. I certainly hope I'm not in the same group as you!

I consider Ron Paul to be the best candidate, with Obama being the least worst of the main contenders...

 
at 10:39 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

What an idiot. Apparently we've got alot of uneducated liberals as well.

 
at 10:45 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your math skills are outdone only by your extreme arrogance. Glad I don't live around you.

 
at 10:49 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Dave said...

In my area (east Cincinnati), I see *many* more Clinton yard signs than I see Obama yard signs.

Of course, the Clinton yard signs could have been put up by Republicans who are switching parties for the primary, as the Enquirer suggested on Sunday.

 
at 11:08 AM, March 03, 2008 Blogger Dave said...

at 10:39 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous said...
What an idiot. Apparently we've got alot of uneducated liberals as well.


"Alot" is not a word.

 
at 11:14 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

this was the case in a lot of states as well. but since pollsters aren't contacting people under 30 due to cell phones, they've been missing out on the real numbers.

 
at 11:15 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can't stand to see all these negative comments about the democratic race. Do you people understand the real significance and historical aspects of this race between Clinton and Obama? This is the first time in history that either a woman or an African American will be in the race to become president of this country. I will be voting for Obama, but may the best man or woman win!

 
at 11:19 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

The polls always say Obama is down i nthe numbers. The thing is, most polls only ask people who voted in the last Presidential election.
Most people who've registured in the last four years will be voting for Obama, so these numbers really don't mean anything.
This just give Hillary supports their last 24 hours of hope.
Change is coming!

 
at 11:32 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Go Hillary

 
at 11:36 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

"...This is the first time in history that either a woman or an African American will be in the race to become president of this country..."

Ya, it's kind of a nightmare isn't it...

 
at 11:43 AM, March 03, 2008 Blogger Quim said...

The Zogy polls are frequently cited as being inaccurate because they are "opt in" polls.
Aren't all polls pretty much "opt in" ?
Do some of these guys go out & coerce people's opinions ?

 
at 11:47 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Go Obama go!!! Cincinnati supports you!!

 
at 11:49 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Please don;t be suckered in by Obama talk and rhetoric. Please see below form the ap. Basically he is very dishonest.

Canadian memo recounts meeting

SAN ANTONIO, Texas (AP) — Barack Obama's senior economic policy adviser privately told Canadian officials to view the debate in Ohio over trade as "political positioning," according to a memo obtained by The Associated Press that was rejected by the adviser and held up Monday as evidence of doublespeak by rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The memo is the first documentation to emerge publicly out of the meeting between the adviser, Austan Goolsbee, and officials with the Canadian consulate in Chicago, but Goolsbee said it misinterprets what he told them. The memo was written by Joseph DeMora, who works for the consulate and attended the meeting.

"Noting anxiety among many U.S. domestic audiences about the U.S. economic outlook, Goolsbee candidly acknowledged the protectionist sentiment that has emerged, particularly in the Midwest, during the primary campaign," the memo said. "He cautioned that this messaging should not be taken out of context and should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans."

Goolsbee disputed the characterization from the conservative government official.

The meeting was first reported last week by Canadian television network CTV, which cited unnamed sources as saying that Goolsbee assured the Canadians that Obama's tough talk on the North American Free Trade Agreement is just campaign rhetoric not to be taken seriously. The Obama campaign and the Canadian embassy denied there was any inconsistency between what the candidate was saying publicly and what advisers were saying privately.

Clinton said Monday that Obama's campaign gave the Canadians "the old wink-wink."

"I don't think people should come to Ohio and tell the people of Ohio one thing and then have your campaign tell a foreign government something else behind closed doors," she said in a statement. "That's the kind of difference between talk and action and that I've been pointing out in this campaign."

 
at 11:51 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Was 10:03 indicating that a significant portion (40%) of SW Ohio Democrats are "rednecks, hillbillies, and klansmen"? Or was that supposed to be an attack on Republicans (who are going to vote for Clinton instead of Obama)? I suspect the latter, but you never know!

Well, before the record is set straight, let's remember that Republicans put the first African-American and the first woman on the US Supreme Court. So let's save the petty jabs...

 
at 11:53 AM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obama will win, regardless of what the polls say. I cant tell you how many republicans I've talked to that are planning to switch party affiliation and vote for Obama just in spite of Hillary. Especially since most feel McCain doesn't need their vote. This phenomenon is larger than you think and shouldn't be overlooked!

 
at 12:15 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

WHO CARES whether a woman or black person has the chance to become President. I thought all of you so-called liberal-progressive types wanted the nation to "get past" the issues of sex and race??? Apparently, all that talk is a bunch of BULL. Seems that the people most concerned with sex and race are DEMS!!! Irony is wonderful.

Kurt Francis
Radical Conservative :)

 
at 12:23 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only reason any paper would post an article like this is to squeeze every last Obama supporter to the polls tuesday. I also don't believe in the last Obama commercial I saw "We can change the planet!" Ok,where do I board the space ship leader?

 
at 12:31 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

My wish is that Obama wins the election in Ohio, but that is not what I think will happen. I have lived in Cincinnati my entire life. If the majority of Ohioans votes for an African American, I will be in total shock. When it comes to race, there are those who see nothing else. For those people, what is best for the country does not matter. It took me a long time to decide who would get my vote. In the end, the only thing that matters is who the best candidate is, and that person is Obama. It has nothing to do with his race, and everything to do with what he is all about.

 
at 12:42 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just out of curiousity...how worthwhile is polling data at this point, given the large number of people who voted early? Is eve-of-election data as useful as it was in the past?

 
at 1:07 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have voted every year since I turned 18 (I'm now 37), and I have yet to give my opinion to those that collect the polling data. I don't believe Hillary has the strength the polls are reporting. She has presented herself a strong fearless leader one moment, and then the next she is whining like a school girl when things are not going her way. Hillary is good at what she does, but she is not the best. Obama has presented himself to be the best canidate for the party. I'm proud to be a Democrat, and I am excited to be involved in making history whether Obama or Hillary wins. History is in the making, and change is coming.

 
at 1:11 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bill Cunningham is a great American!

 
at 1:17 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

This news article -- like almost all MSM news about polls -- misses the point. Any poll result is only valid IF -- and only IF -- the sample of people polled is representative of those who will actually vote. Take a look at what makes up the sample in all of the polls cited. Almost all -- Zogby being the only exception -- are based on voter samples (male/female, older/younger, high school/college, Dem/Indep/Repub, etc) proportionate to previous elections -- or to some "standard" used by the polling organization.

The U of C IPR Ohio Poll, for example, uses ridiculous percentages for its sample -- it underestimates the number of women, blacks and independents who the poll-takers think will vote -- as compared to much higher percentages of these voter categories who actually votes in previous Democratic primaries and caucuses around the country to date. Unless a catastrophe overtakes Ohio, there is no reason to believe that Ohio voter turnout -- by voter sub-category -- will be any different from those previous Democratic primary/ caucuses held this year in 36 other US states.

So, don't pay much attn to the results of theses polls. Remember, if the poll sample does not represent the accurate proportions of those voter categories actually voting -- it becomes the old computer adage of "garbage in/garbage out."

 
at 1:37 PM, March 03, 2008 Blogger fougasseu said...

I think the "Cunningham Effect" will come into play, helping put Obama over the top.
As the venom has flowed from Limbaugh and Hannity, it has only sent more moderates and independents towards Obama. Most people are mostly decent and fair-minded, and want to to see honesty and competence restored to the government.
Cunningham's demagoguery will make the margin of difference for Obama. If he would have attacked Hillary as vociferously, the same would happen, she'd win.

 
at 1:53 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Well, before the record is set straight, let's remember that Republicans put the first African-American and the first woman on the US Supreme Court. So let's save the petty jabs..."

If you are old enough to remember...Thurgood Marshall was the FIRST Black SC Justice, not Clarence Thomas...and LBJ appointed him...A DEMOCRAT...

 
at 1:57 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry Anonymous at 1115. Thurgood Marshall was an American jurist and the first African American to serve on the supreme Court of the United States. He was nominated by the 36th President Lyndon B. Johnson. President Johnson was a Democrate.

 
at 2:14 PM, March 03, 2008 Blogger KS said...

In response to the 11:51 AM comment, I have lived in Cincinatti (Anderson) all of my life and if there are any citizens in this city who believe race is not an issue here, they are a part of the problem and in complete denial. I have always been a Hillary supporter, but will casting my vote for Obama tomorrow as he is truly the BEST candidate across the board.

 
at 2:15 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone wrote don't be suckered in by Obama's talk and rhetoric...he is very dishonest. Let's get real people....all four running for president are using talk and rhetoric... and saying a lot of things that are not necessarily true. It's a game to win people...Don't hate the players....hate the game. MAY THE BEST PLAYER WIN!!!!!

 
at 2:19 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Liberal Democrat said...

~

Let's all support affirmative action and send the black-fist muslim to the WHITE HOUSE.

~

 
at 2:41 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm voting for Obama, and so is everyone in Mason. I'm a republican by the way.

 
at 2:43 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

which candidate is the black fist muslim?

 
at 2:56 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

My issue with Obama is he keeps saying that he was against troops going into Iraq. That's all fine and dandy. But, the fact is he didn't have to vote and put his name on the line. It's easy to sit back now and say you disagree when you never had to go on record to begin with. The other is I'm not sure he understands the impact of pulling trrops out. I want to get them home as soon as possible but you have to have a sense of any consequences. I also want to know how he plans to pay for his universal health coverage

 
at 3:13 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obama can talk the talk....but I haven't seen him walk the walk. Talk is cheap. I want to see him actually get something done

 
at 3:24 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous jacksmith :-) said...

YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)

If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary's than they had ever been before or since.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. :-)

Best regards

jacksmith...

 
at 5:06 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Barrack Hussein Obama.

Uh-oh, here come the democRAT thought police to take me away to a re-education camp...

 
at 5:34 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

The majority of voters aren't polled, so I don't know how they can claim Clinton will win according to polls. The polls have been incorrect more than once in this primary so far, and I expecct it to be wrong here. Obama will win Ohio.

 
at 6:03 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

.

"... Anonymous said...which candidate is the black fist muslim? 2:43 PM, March 03, 2008"


 
at 8:50 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

3/3/2008

We found out that the Cincinnati Enquirer just endorsed Obama with the weakest of reasons. There are so many unanswered questions about Obama that the Enquirer did not evaluate. Let us start with his memo on NAFTA to the Canadian government, his land deal in Chicago and why he has called for no hearings in the Senate on the NATO committee. His legislative history is unimpressive. The Enquirer has made a mistake to endorse Obama, but voters will not make the same mistake. We are going to vote for Hillary. She has actually reached across the parties to pass health care for children and VA benefits. Hillary has a good energy independence plan to develop green collar jobs in Ohio, and firmly supports education, and is experienced with foreign leaders. Vote for Hillary on March 4, 2008.

 
at 10:59 PM, March 03, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder how many of these Obamabots voted for Bush in the last election, which nullifies anything they have to say this time around.

 
at 8:04 AM, March 04, 2008 Anonymous jacksmith said...

YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)

If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary's than they had ever been before or since.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. :-)

Best regards

jacksmith...

 
at 11:43 AM, March 04, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was planning on moving to Canada if Obama wins but mow I have to go to Mexico.

 
at 12:00 PM, March 04, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tell em, Jack.

Why would anyone vote for someone just due to skin color and not experience. Everyone needs to learn more about thier choice not just believe what is said in a debate.

 
at 12:10 PM, March 04, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

It will be a sad day to see Barack Hussein Obama win this race. If you believe he will change things, your right, but it won't be for the better. You will be sorry....If more people like Bill Cunningham would speak out, and quit hiding maybe we could prevent Obama from winning. It's not about race, it's about what's right.

 
at 12:47 PM, March 04, 2008 Blogger Anonymous said...

Wow, I can not believe no one is addressing the obvious.....Hillary is a socialist and Barrack is a racist! McCain all the way!

 
at 12:57 PM, March 04, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

So what is McCain? Though if and a Big IF Obama wins , McCain will be my choice.So more flip flopping to come.

 
at 3:11 AM, March 05, 2008 Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bill-ary is corrupt, morally and ethically bankrupt, beholden to the interests of the moneyed few.
End the political dynasties and culture of nepotism that is destroying our democracy.

 
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