Bliss poll: Strickland well ahead, DeWine-Brown too close to call

Democrat Ted Strickland maintains a substantial lead over Republican Kenneth Blackwell in the Ohio governor’s race, while the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Mike DeWine is too close to call, according to a new survey released today by the University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.

The random telephone survey of 1,073 Ohioans was taken Aug. 20 to Sept. 29, and included a large number of undecided respondents.

It also found that 53 percent of Ohioans expressed a "great deal of confidence" that their votes would be counted fairly in the 2006 general election. However, Democrats and less-likely voters reported much lower levels of confidence than Republicans and likely voters. Sixteen percent of all respondents had "little or no confidence."

The complete report can be found online here.


"The results of this election will resonate in Ohio for many years to come," said John C. Green of the Bliss Institute, and one of the poll’s directors. "2006 looks like a good year for Ohio Democrats, but exactly how good remains to be seen."

The major findings of the survey include:

• In Ohio’s gubernatorial race, U.S. Rep. Strickland leads Secretary of State Blackwell by a large margin. Among the general public, 40.6 percent favored Strickland, 26.5 percent Blackwell, 4.2 percent other candidates, and 28.7 percent were undecided. Among likely voters, 47.4 percent favored Strickland, 33.8 percent Blackwell, 3.4 percent other candidates, and 15.5 percent were undecided.

• Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is extremely close. Among all respondents, Sen. DeWine had the support of 36.3 percent, U.S. Rep. Brown 35.0 percent, other candidates 3.2 percent, and 25.4 percent were undecided. Among likely voters, DeWine led with 41.7 percent, Brown 41.5 percent, other candidates 2.5 percent, and 14.3 percent were undecided.

• A two-thirds majority of Ohio voters — 67.9 percent — said the state was on the "wrong track" overall; 74.4 percent and 56.8 percent of all respondents said Ohio was on the wrong track in regard to the economy and moral climate, respectively.

• In the attorney general’s race, Republican Auditor Betty Montgomery leads Democratic state Sen. Marc Dann 32 percent to 22 percent in the general public, and 38 percent to 24 percent among likely voters.

• For secretary of state, Democrat Jennifer Brunner, a former judge, leads Republican Greg Hartmann, Hamilton County Clerk of Courts, 24 percent to 14 in the general public, and 27 percent to 20 percent among likely voters.

• In the auditor’s race, Democrat Barbara Sykes is ahead of Republican Mary Taylor 25 percent to 15 percent among the general public, and 29 percent to 19 percent among likely voters.

• For treasurer, Democrat Richard Cordray leads Republican Sandra O’Brien 24 percent to 21 percent among the general public, and 29 percent to 26 percent among likely voters.

• A proposal to raise the minimum wage drew the most support of any ballot initiative, with 81 percent support among the general public and 72.9 percent backing from likely voters.

• A proposal to allow slot machines in Ohio was backed by 47.6 percent of both the general public and likely voters, vs. 38.3 percent of the general public and 40.4 percent of likely voters against the measure.

• A proposed ban without exceptions on smoking in public places was supported by 42.6 percent of the general public and 47.7 percent of likely voters; a smoking ban with exceptions was backed by 51.4 percent of the general public and 52.5 percent of likely voters.

• Overall, Ohioans had a good deal of confidence in the fairness of the electoral process: 53 percent said they had a "great deal of confidence" that their ballots would be counted fairly in 2006, and another 31 percent said they had "some confidence." Just 11 percent claimed to have "little confidence" and only 5 percent expressed "no confidence at all."

• Democrats expressed much less confidence in a fair vote count, with just 39 percent reporting a "great deal of confidence" in the process and another 40 percent "some confidence." In contrast, 77 percent of Republicans expressed a "great deal of confidence" and another 19 percent "some confidence." For independents, the comparable figures were 43 percent and 32 percent, respectively. Overall, 61 percent of likely voters expressed a "great deal of confidence" in the fairness of the process, while just 49 percent of less-likely voters reported a "great deal of confidence."

Conducted by the Center for Marketing & Opinion Research LLC of Canton. the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.