Cranley's not-so-secret plan

Last night, John Cranley, the Democratic candidate in the 1st Congressional District, detailed his plan for how he is going to accomplish what no Democrat (including himself, in 2000) has been able to do in the last six congressional elections - defeat Steve Chabot.

Cranley showed up in Clifton Wednesday night at a meeting of Democracy for Cincinnati, a group of about 20 activists who supported Howard Dean for president two years ago. He argued he could win - using the John Kerry-George Bush contest of 2004 as evidence.

In the last presidential race, Cranley said, the 1st District gave Bush the lowest winning percentage of any congressional district in Ohio held by a Republican. Bush edged Kerry in the 1st District by only 3,441 votes out of about 300,000 cast. If it hadn't been for the fact that the sparsely populated portion of Butler County that is in the 1st District went four-to-one for Bush, Kerry would have won the district because the Democrat edged out Bush in Hamilton County, which is where most of the votes are.

That, Cranley figures, shows great discontent in the 1st District with the way the Republicans are running the White House and Capitol Hill.

"When some people think about the 1st District, they think of Green Township, and, granted that's a very Republican place, with lots of voters,'' said Cranley.

But, he said, the district has a 27.5% minority population and the bulk of the city of Cincinnati's poor inner-city neighborhoods, which are chock full of Democratic votes for the politician who can get them out to the polls.

Plus, Cranley said, he is every bit the West Side boy that Chabot is; and the fact that he was the top vote-getter in last fall's Cincinnati City Council election, with substantial support in west side neighborhoods, shows that he can compete with Chabot toe-to-toe, he said.

"Green Township has gone 80 percent for Chabot in most elections,'' Cranley said. "But I was born in Green Township. I still have a lot of family in Green Township. If I can cut him down to 60-40 - I'd like to win it, of course - and pick up votes in Colerain and Delhi, I know I can win.''

"I'm not saying it is going to be easy. But it can be done.''