The sharks are already circling

We’ve heard a lot of appeals to voters in the last few days, but one of the most creative ones is that voters should vote for Rep. Jean Schmidt, who got national attention last year for her “cowards cut and run” speech on the House floor and faced criticism for plagiarizing a column and misrepresenting that she had two college degrees, because a vote for Schmidt would be a vote for House Majority Leader John Boehner.

That’s true. You can’t really be “House Majority Leader” if Republicans lose the majority in the House, an election outcome that a litany of national pundits have already been assuming is a foregone conclusion.

Among the “toss-up” House races across the country that are expected to determine the control of Congress next year are three right in Boehner’s backyard: Schmidt vs. Democrat Victoria Wulsin in Ohio’s 2nd District, Republican Rep. Steve Chabot vs. Democrat John Cranley in Ohio’s 1st District, and Republican Rep. Geoff Davis vs. Democrat Ken Lucas, a former congressman, in Kentucky’s 4th District.

Boehner, as you’d expect, doesn’t think Republicans have anything to worry about. Here’s what the West Chester Republican told Fox News yesterday:

“We’re in a tough political environment. I’ve been on the road for these last five weeks. I’ve been to all these tough districts and our candidates are doing what they need to be doing. They’re running their grassroots operation, their get out the vote effort, and they’re talking about the issues the American people care about… And if we continue to mobilize our voters here over the next two days, we’re going to be fine on election night.”

So will Boehner lose his job?

If Republicans lose control of the House, it seems likely that Boehner could take part of the blame. Congressional Quarterly reported today that there's already talk in Washington about postponing leadership elections scheduled for Nov. 15 until a later date, and that some GOP lawmakers are saying that Republicans should elect a whole new leadership team if the party loses the House.

And Roll Call reported today that that Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., and House Energy & Commerce Committee Chairman Joe Barton, R-Texas, have already announced that they're planning to challenge Boehner for the Minority Leader post should the GOP lose the House.

Other lawmakers jockeying for a position on the new leadership team are Policy Chairman Adam Putnam, R-Fla.; Chief Deputy Whip Eric Cantor, R-Va.; Republican Conference Vice Chairman Jack Kingston, R-Ga.; Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., who had mounted a last-minute challenge to Boehner as majority leader earlier this year; and Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.

And if the party maintains control of the House?

Well, then it’s a whole different story. There’s mounting speculation that House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., who has taken heat in the congressional page scandal, would likely step down. And that could pave the way for Boehner to capture his dream job of House speaker.