Pepper's poll: Pepper is tops

A poll paid for by David Pepper shows he is the leading candidate to become Hamilton County's next commissioner.

That's the same poll the Pepper campaign pitched to the Enquirer Tuesday but then withdrew because the Enquirer was going to use it only on the blog and not in the newspaper. Pepper's campaign wanted it printed in a newspaper first. Today, the Cincinnati Post ran a newspaper story on the poll.

The poll was conducted July 26-30. Its results are based on the 400 adult Hamilton Countians it reached. Pepper said his campaign paid between $10,000-$15,000 for the poll.

The high cost, Pepper said, proves the poll wasn't rigged.

"You'd never create a poll and spend that kind of money to cook the books," Pepper said today. "We're paying that amount of money to make sure it's accurate.

"If (results) are bad, like I think Phil's are, you don't tell anybody."

Pepper, a Democrat, is taking on incumbent Republican Commissioner Phil Heimlich.

"I can understand why he's trying to get something out that makes him look like a viable candidate," Heimlich responded.

"He's behind on fundraising by 2-to-1, he's behind on the issues and he's behind on the grass-roots support."

Heimlich wouldn't discuss if he has done any polling or what that possible polling showed.

"Any polls we do, we don't talk about," Heimlich said.

Below is the letter Pepper's campaign released with the poll followed by the poll.

David Pepper Releases New Poll:
Pepper leading Heimlich by 5 Points;
Majority Disapprove of Heimlich's Work

A professional poll conducted by one of the leading polling companies in Washington shows David Pepper has opened a lead over Phil Heimclich for County Commission, with Pepper's approval rating growing while Heimlich’s approval rating plummets along with perceptions of the county 's direction . The results (in attached memorandum) make clear that all the back and forth and infighting of the last six months, with no results, have driven Heimlich's numbers dramatically down. Stated simply, County voters want to clean up County Government--with a new direction, and new leadership at the top.

Key numbers:
- Pepper leads Heimlich 42-37%, with 21% undecided; the two were tied at 33% in February.
- Citizens do not approve of the job Phil Heimlich is doing --55% think he is doing a fair/poor job; only 39% think he is doing a good/excellent job; this is a dramatic decrease since February
- Citizens think that the County is moving in the wrong direction--57% thing the County is "pretty seriously off track." Again, this is a dramatic decrease since February.
- Given this assessment, only 33% of voters say they want to re-elect Phil Heimlich to the County Commission.

"These results echo what we hear directly from citizens every day--people want to clean up County government and start seeing results again," Pepper said. "They are tired of broken government as our neighboring communities leave us in their dust."

• Read a copy of the poll summary (in .pdf format).