Strickland's lead must grow to 20 pts. to save Dann

An update from Statehouse intern Annie Hall on the Bliss Institute survey:

John Green, director of the University of Akron’s Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, is one of the most respected political analysts in Ohio. Tuesday he held a press conference outlining the results of a month-long poll on the statewide candidate races and issues.

Green was asked about Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland’s possible coattails in helping elect other Democrats on the statewide ticket. The Lisbon congressman has consistently polled in the double digits ahead of Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.

The Democrat having the most difficulty grabbing onto Strickland’s coattails is state Sen. Marc Dann ,who is in the unenviable position of running against Auditor Betty Montgomery, arguably Ohio’s most popular Republican, for state attorney general.

How many percentage points ahead of Blackwell must Strickland win by on Nov. 7 for Dann to beat Montgomery?

"Not speaking from our data but speaking as a political scientist," Green said, "perhaps 20 or something like that because in our data, and I think other people’s data support this too, Betty Montgomery has a pretty good deal of support."

Tuesday's survey, involving 1,073 people, was conducted Aug. 20 to Sept. 29. It found Strickland leading Blackwell by 14 percentage points.

Green added: "But if, on Election Day, there is a 13 or 14 percent gap, I think that the Republicans would win the attorney general’s race but I think they'd lose the other (statewide, non-gubernatorial) races.”

The complete General Election Survey can be found at: www.uakron.edu/bliss/research.php
and in today's Enquirer at: http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20061011/NEWS01/610110368/