It's (almost) anybody's race

Candidates (from left) Justin P. Jeffre, Mark L. Mallory, Sandra Queen Noble, David Pepper, Alicia Reece and Charlie Winburn at a Kids Voting event in the West End last week. Shainna Ward asks a question.

The latest WCPO/Survey USA poll, released this afternoon, shows that David Pepper (26 percent), Mark L. Mallory (23 percent), Alicia Reece (21 percent) and Charlie Winburn (20 percent) all have a good shot at getting out of Tuesday's mayoral primary.

With a margin of error of 4.2 percent, all the major candidates are within what pollsters call the "spread." That means that, for all intents and purposes, Pepper could be as low as 22 percent, and Winburn as high as 24 percent. Or not.

The Survey USA pollsters summed up the race this way: "Campaign is volatile, electorate is fluid."

WCPO provides a link to all the cross-tabs, which show that Winburn has won back many of the GOP voters he was losing to Pepper early on. This is the first poll taken after Winburn got the endorsements of the Fraternal Order of Police and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

Winburn, who had previously derided the WCPO poll as "bogus," now tells Channel 9 that "It's a great increase, it shows we worked hard. It makes a statement that our message is resonating."

Mallory in an e-mailed statement: "The WCPO poll confirms the surge in momentum that we have been experiencing on the ground. Our message is resonating with the people of Cincinnati and they are joining our efforts to move the city in a new direction."

Reece's father and campaign manager, Steven Reece Sr.: "Polls went out the window a while back. You don't talk about a poll the day before an election. It's all about turnout."

Front-runner Pepper told Channel 9: "This is a bigger lead than the other two polls you've done and I think it is showing when you bring out a positive vision, and I have, positively, people react better."

(Photo by Gary Landers/The Cincinnati Enquirer)