Analysis: Primary victors could have coattails

The 31 candidates for Cincinnati City Council won't be on the Sept. 13 mayoral primary ballot, but that doesn't mean they don't have a vested interest in the outcome.

It's the mayoral candidates who will have the best get-out-the-vote efforts, and the results of next Tuesday's election will help decide which constituencies are energized and which are less likely to show up.

A contest between Alicia Reece and Charlie Winburn, for example, would make Baptist churches ground zero in the November campaign but put moderate Democrats in a lesser-of-two-evils dilemma. A David Pepper-Mark L. Mallory matchup would launch a battle for the middle, but leave partisans on both sides bored stiff with another politics-as-usual ballot. And any election that includes Justin P. Jeffre would turn Cincinnati politics on its head.

Here's a look at the top mayoral candidates, and the council candidates whose fates are most tied to next Tuesday's results:

• Pepper: Precincts he won in 2003 also went strongly for Charterite Jim Tarbell, Republican Pat DeWine and Democrat John Cranley. DeWine is no longer in the mix -- but Republican Leslie Ghiz, a Hyde Park lawyer, has cast herself as his successor. A Pepper victory in the primary would bode well for her. To the extent they're running Pepper-like council campaigns, Democrat Jeff Berding and Charterite Chris Bortz could also benefit.
  
  
• Reece: Her strongholds in 2003 also voted in big numbers for Democrat Laketa Cole, then-independent Damon Lynch III (now an endorsed Democrat) and Charterite Christopher Smitherman. Cole will likely finish well no matter what, but a Reece victory would keep Smitherman's seat safe and could add Lynch to the council.
  
  
• Mallory: Though he's never run citywide, his appeal is to white progressives, and moderate African-Americans. His victory would bolster liberal-to-moderate candidates like Democrats David C. Crowley and Cecil Thomas.
  
  
• Winburn: His political protege, Republican Sam Malone, probably has the most to gain from a Winburn victory in the primary -- their campaigns are so close that they share the same treasurer, Robert L. Hall. Republicans Chris Monzel and John Eby have attended every Winburn campaign event to date, and would get a big visibility boost if Winburn advances to the general election.
  
  
• Jeffre: Pollsters and pundits are counting him out. But a Jeffre upset in the primary could bring new, young, anti-establishment voters into the process -- voters who probably won't have much loyalty to any council campaign. Still, fellow long shots like Charterite Nick Spencer and independent Gerry Kraus could get a little boost from a Jeffre campaign in November.