Poll finds a three-way race for mayor

The latest WCPO/Survey USA poll has Alicia Reece, David Pepper and Mark L. Mallory all competing for the top two spots in the Sept. 13 nonpartisan primary.

Reece (27 percent), Pepper (25 percent), and Mallory (23 percent) are all within the poll's 4.1 percent margin of error. Winburn trails at 13 percent. "Other candidates" as a group polled at 7 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

So where are those votes coming from? Read the cross-tabs and you, too, can be a political insider:

QUESTION: On September 13th, Cincinnati will have a Primary for Mayor. If the Primary for Mayor of Cincinnati were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Mark Mallory? David Pepper? Alicia Reece? Charlie Winburn? Or some other candidate?

	Mallory	Pepper	Reece	Winburn	Other	Un- decided
All likely voters
Total	23%	25%	27%	13%	7%	5%
By sex
Male	24%	26%	23%	14%	9%	3%
Female	22%	24%	30%	12%	6%	6%
By age
18-34	15%	20%	39%	14%	8%	4%
35-49	27%	23%	30%	11%	5%	4%
50-64	26%	26%	19%	14%	10%	4%
65+	20%	34%	20%	13%	7%	6%
By race
White	15%	42%	13%	15%	10%	5%
Black	31%	5%	46%	10%	4%	5%
Hispanic	30%	41%	5%	8%	13%	2%
Other	30%	5%	24%	18%	21%	2%
By party affiliation
Republican	11%	31%	13%	27%	10%	8%
Democratic	30%	20%	36%	7%	5%	3%
Independent	19%	32%	22%	11%	11%	5%
Not Sure	12%	4%	17%	38%	9%	19%
By education
Grad School	27%	33%	18%	14%	5%	2%
College	20%	33%	18%	15%	11%	3%
Some College	24%	24%	31%	9%	8%	5%
No College	21%	18%	35%	13%	7%	6%
By ideology
Conservative	13%	28%	18%	26%	8%	6%
Moderate	26%	27%	27%	11%	7%	2%
Liberal	27%	23%	34%	4%	9%	3%
No Sure	15%	8%	41%	10%	4%	21%

WCPO surveyed 2,000 Cincinnati residents by telephone from July 30 to Aug. 1. Of them, 1,722 were registered voters, and 583 were judged to be "likely" voters. The results above are of likely voters.

Some observations about this poll's methodology:

• The number of undecided voters -- 5 percent -- seems unusually low for a poll conducted six weeks before a mayoral primary. That's a number you'd expect days before a presidential election. Are Cincinnati voters unusually attuned to this race, or is the pollster underestimating turnout?
  
• The pollster didn't ask specifically about Justin Jeffre, Sylvan Grisco, or Sandra Queen Noble. Survey USA and WCPO dropped their names from the poll questions after a previous poll reported their name recognition at less than 40 percent each. Jeffre, the former 98 Degrees singer who is supposed to be a celebrity candidate, was unfamiliar to 66 percent of voters. Noble was unfamiliar to 69 percent; Grisco to 80 percent.
  
• The methodology -- a touch-tone poll in which randomly selected respondents answer recorded questions read by WCPO anchor Clyde Gray -- remains somewhat controversial among many professional pollsters, although Survey USA has had a good track record in previous Cincinnati elections.